Apple’s iPhone is so successful that the company’s senior vice president of worldwide marketing, Phil Schiller, recently revealed that “each new generation sold approximately equal to all previous generations combined.” That’s pretty staggering when you think about it, and according to analyst firm Asymco, it could mean that Apple’s new iPhone will sell more than 263 million units.
Asymco came to this conclusion by calculating the sales totals of all five iPhones Apple has already released. But how accurate is Schiller’s claim?
Well, according to Asymco, the iPhone 3G sold nearly four times the amount of the original iPhone, while the iPhone 3GS sold 1.6 times more units than the iPhone 3G. Then the iPhone 4 came along and sold more units than the original iPhone, the iPhone 3G, and the iPhone 3GS put together. Asymco notes that iPhone 4 sales are still rising, too.
The iPhone 4S, being an “incremental” upgrade, is only halfway towards selling matching the cumulative total sales of its four predecessors. And with a new iPhone right around the corner, there’s a chance it might now make it. Asymco expects, however, that the iPhone 4S will get two thirds of the way by September, reaching its target of 162 million units.
But the new iPhone will blow every other iPhone out of the water. It’s expected to be a major upgrade, bring a bigger display, a new dock connector, a new form factor, and more. And according to Schiller’s numbers, it’ll sell more than 263 million units.
Asymco isn’t so sure the device will be quite that big, however. In the last half of 2012, Asymco predicts Apple will sell 165 million iPhone, 102 million of which will be the new iPhone. Its report reads:
Taking that forecast forward and assuming a 60 percent growth rate, I currently have abut 200 million iPhones over the next twelve months. If 85 percent of those are the next generation, that yields about 170 million iPhone 5s through mid 2013.
The firm believes that if the new iPhone continues to sell after a seventh-generation handset is released — like previous models have — then it could hit the 200 million mark.
There is also the question of whether the ‘mix’ will begin to favor the older generations more,” the report continues. “If that’s the case, we might see version ‘5’ meet its target.